If solar maximum is next year, 2024, (see below) subtract 11.5yrs, and it takes us to the beginning of our new 26,000 year cycle of mid-2012. Good synchronicity.
GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH (G1): A minor G1-class geomagnetic storm is likely on Oct. 30th when a solar wind stream is expected to hit Earth’s magnetic field. The gaseous material is flowing from a double-lobed hole in the sun’s atmosphere. Arctic sky watchers should be alert for bright auroras. Aurora alerts: SMS Text
DRAMATIC M-CLASS EXPLOSION: A magnetic filament just beyond the sun’s northeastern limb exploded on Oct. 26th (2324 UT), causing a chain reaction of magnetic eruptions that spilled onto the Earthside of the sun. NASA’s SDO recorded the M1.4 category blast:
Coronagraphs onboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) have since detected a fast-moving CME emerging from the blast site. Type II radio emissions from the leading edge of the CME suggest it is moving 1558 km/s (3.5 million mph). There is a hint of an Earth-directed component. It is too soon to know for sure, however; confirmation awaits additional data from SOHO.
NOAA FORECASTS QUICKER, STRONGER SOLAR MAX: When Solar Cycle 25 began in 2020, leading forecasters thought it would be weak and slow to develop. Fast forward three years: NOAA is now predicting a quicker, stronger solar cycle. The revised forecast, published yesterday, shows Solar Max coming sometime between January and October 2024:
NOAA’s original prediction for Solar Cycle 25 is shown in pink (), the broad band indicating the uncertainty of the forecast. It has become clear in recent years that the original prediction was too low, which prompted NOAA to issue a new one. The magenta line () traces the new forecast, and takes into account recent high sunspot counts.
Uncertainties in the new forecast are bounded by different shades of magenta. There is roughly a 25% chance that the smoothed sunspot number will fall within the dark-shaded region; a 50% chance it will fall in the medium-shaded region; and a 75% chance it will fall in the lightest of the shaded regions.
If this new forecast is correct, Solar Cycle 25 could land in the ballpark of Solar Cycle 23, which peaked in 2000-2001, and produced the famous Halloween Storms of 2003. However, the odds still favor Solar Cycle 25 being a bit weaker than Solar Cycle 23. Either way, next year’s Solar Max could be potent.
NOAA plans to update this new forecast every month. Check out their Space Weather Prediction Testbed for the latest prediction.